A Knife-Edge General Election

New Zealand votes on 7 November and the contest is close. The latest RNZ Reid Research poll has Labour on 32.2% and National on 29.1%. On those numbers, a National, ACT and New Zealand First grouping would hold 59 seats, while Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori would hold 55.

Political scientist Dr Grant Duncan describes it as a genuine contest between the left and right blocs, made more unpredictable by The Opportunities Party. With TOP polling around the 5% threshold, a small movement either way could change the coalition arithmetic considerably.

What does that mean for business?

Quite simply, plan for more than the result you would prefer.

In a close election, no party’s policy platform can be safely ignored. Several coalition combinations remain possible, with different implications for tax, regulation, infrastructure, employment and environmental policy. Organisations that understand the range of possibilities will be in a much better position to respond once the votes are counted and coalition negotiations begin.

Tax is a good example. National is campaigning on no new taxes, although it has not ruled out an increase to ACC levies. ACT continues to argue for smaller government and lower taxes. Labour is promoting a capital gains tax, while Te Pāti Māori has proposed a five-part tax plan that includes a 5% stamp duty and a No GST on Kai credit. Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori have some common ground on taxing capital or wealth and providing relief to lower-income households, although the detail would be negotiated.

New Zealand First supports targeted tax relief for lower-income households but opposes changes to retirement settings. As ever, the smaller parties may have an outsized influence on what survives coalition talks.

As always, Convergence remains politically neutral and maintains relationships across the political spectrum. We speak with ministers, opposition spokespeople, political advisers and the public servants who know where the data and policy detail live.

We are also currently helping organisations prepare BIMs (Briefings to Incoming Ministers). These are a practical way to put your organisation’s priorities in front of a new minister, whichever parties form the next government. The trick is to start before election night, not while everyone else is scrambling the morning after.